Economic impact of oil and gas extraction in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin

Abstract

Oil and gas exploration in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin is considered essential to sustaining national production levels, given the decline of mature fields. This study analyzes the economic impacts of exploration in the region using the Input-Output Matrix (IOM). Two scenarios are simulated: the first, a short-term analysis, assesses the effects of Petrobras’ planned investments in the region through 2029, based on the Investment Absorption Matrix (IAM); the second estimates the impacts of oil production over 10, 15, and 20 years, considering different production potential levels. Results indicate that exploration in the Equatorial Margin could generate significant economic effects across several variables, highlighting its strategic potential for the country. However, the study also notes methodological limitations and recommends caution in interpreting the findings. The research contributes to the ongoing debate on this new oil frontier, weighing its potential benefits against the technical, environmental, and regulatory challenges involved.