A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Behavior of Property Crimes in the State of Minas Gerais in the Period from 2000 to 2017

Abstract

This article analyzes some of the factors that may have influenced the evolution of the number of violent crimes against property in Minas Gerais. Initially, a literature review on the “Economy of Crime” is carried out. In addition to reviewing the US economist Gary S. Becker's model of individual crime supply (1968), empirical studies dealing with the topic were also considered. Second, using econometric methods with panel data, results were obtained that demonstrate that the rate of violent crimes against property is related to per capita spending in the area of education, in addition to demographic and income indicators, such as urbanization, population density, percentage of young people in the population, average income in the formal sector and income inequality. Among the main results, we highlight the dynamic effect of per capita spending on education and the percentage of young people in the population. Contributing to the explanation of the behavior of these two variables on the rate of violent crimes against property in Minas Gerais.