Models for forecasting deforestation alerts in the Legal Amazon

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54766/rberu.v17i4.979

Keywords:

Arima, Structural breaks, Seasonality

Abstract

This study sought to select a forecast model for deforestation alerts in the Legal Amazon
from data generated by satellite monitoring of DETER-B between August 2015 and December 2021. The time series of deforestation alerts was analyzed and then, forecasts of deforestation alerts were made, using seasonal ARIMA class forecasting models. The presence of structural break in May 2019 and stochastic seasonality was identified. Dynamic forecasts were made for six periods forward of the last value of the sample, to compare with the values outside the sample and verify the quality of the forecasts. The specifications were accurate in predicting the alerts six months forward, indicating that public policymakers can create reasonable expectations about the alerts, mainly by allowing the adoption of preventive measures for deforestation.

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Author Biographies

Iago Gomes Gonçalves, Federal University of Viçosa

Graduated in Economic Sciences from the Federal University of Ouro Preto (2021). Master in Applied Economics from the Federal University of Viçosa (2023). He is currently a doctoral student in economics applied by the same institution.

Marcelo Marcelo Dias Paes Ferreira, Federal University of Viçosa

Graduated in Agribusiness Management from the Federal University of Viçosa (2009), Master (2011) and Doctorate (2015) in Economics Applied by the same institution. He is currently a professor at the Department of Rural Economics at the Federal University of Viçosa. He acts as a permanent teacher at the Postgraduate Program in Applied Economics at the Federal University of Viçosa and the Graduate Program in Agribusiness of the School of Agronomy of the Federal University of Goiás. Has experience in Economics, focusing on Agrarian Economics and Natural and Environmental Resources Economics, acting on the following subjects: land use, biofuels, production economy, productivity analysis and rural development.

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Published

2024-06-26

How to Cite

GOMES GONÇALVES, I.; MARCELO DIAS PAES FERREIRA, M. Models for forecasting deforestation alerts in the Legal Amazon. Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, [S. l.], v. 17, n. 4, p. 537–560, 2024. DOI: 10.54766/rberu.v17i4.979. Disponível em: https://revistaaber.org.br/rberu/article/view/979. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.

Issue

Vol. 17 No. 4 (2023): Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos

Section

Papers

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Copyright (c) 2024 ABER

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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The content published by the 'Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos' (Brazilian Review of Regional and Urban Studies) is licensed under a Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional license. 

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