CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBANIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE SEMI-ARID REGION OF BRAZIL

Abstract

To better understand urbanization in the semi-arid region of Brazil and the related intra-municipality rural-urban migration, this study aimed to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to the urbanization process in the last two decades and how future scenarios of climate change would affect it. Using fixed-effects panel data considering spatial dependence, the results confirmed that climate drivers (mainly temperature) were decisive for the intensification of the urbanization process in the municipalities of the semi-arid region. The effect of climate on the urbanization process was even more intense in municipalities that relied widely on the agricultural sector. Simulations of future climate change indicated that the urbanization process tends to accelerate over time for severe climate change scenarios.