Crime Rates in São Paulo Municipalities: Heterogeneous Effects of Economic Development on Crimes Against Life and Property

Abstract

This study measured crime rates in the municipalities of São Paulo with the aim of investigating heterogeneous effects of economic development over time and according to crime categories (against life and property), dimensions of development (employment-income and education) and regions of the state (metropolitan region, coast, and interior). The hypothesis intrinsic to the analyzes is that the worse the socioeconomic conditions of a location, the higher the opportunity cost and, thus, the lower tends to be criminality. To achieve the objective, regressions were carried out in dynamic panel with municipal data from 2007 to 2016. The results did not refute the hypothesis, mainly because the employment-income and educational dimensions were shown, in a robust way, to reduce crimes against life. However, the same cannot be said in relation to crimes against property. Furthermore, the results indicated: the inertial component of crime and significant relationships between crime, police productivity, firearms and trafficking, and the possession of narcotics.