Bolsa Família Program coverage and femicide in the state of Minas Gerais

Abstract

Femicide is the most extreme form of gender based violence and remains a structural challenge in Brazil. This study analyzes the association between the coverage of the Bolsa Família Program and femicide rates, proxied by female deaths due to aggression, across municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais from 2013 to 2021, using IMRS data and a dynamic panel data model. The descriptive analysis by mesoregions revealed persistent territorial heterogeneity. The econometric results indicate a negative and statistically significant association between higher program coverage and lower femicide rates, consistent with mechanisms related to greater economic autonomy and improved access to support services among beneficiaries. From a public policy perspective, the findings support the need for coordination between income transfer programs and specialized protection services with territorial reach, along with continuous local monitoring to address regional disparities.