CRIMINAL SPILLOVERS IN BRASILIA’S INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT REGION: AN ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT CRIME (2010-2017)

Abstract

The discussion of crimes relies on a vast literature whose debates permeate several dimensions: social, spatial, economic, and demographic, among others. The objective of this article is to understand the spatial distribution of crime in Brasilia’s Integrated Development Region. It concludes that the crime rates in this region are not randomly distributed spatially, because an exploratory analysis of spatial data indicates the existence of spatial dependence. This means that the municipalities that border the Federal District are responsible for more than 80% of the crimes carried out in the period under examination. The main victims are young people, mainly black men shot by firearms, and the proportion of young people between 15 and 19 years of age was a determining factor in this positive correlation, among other significant conditions obtained by using estimates of spatial regressions using Spatial Durbin Models – SDM and data panels for the years 2010 to 2017. We detected a 51% incidence of spillovers for fatal crimes.